Lately, the single largest topic that our clients are curious about or wary of is the 2020 Presidential Election. Although I have previously written about the impact of elections on the overall market, it is where our focus will be in these brief updates since it is in the front of your minds. Although this coming election highlights a major philosophical difference in each party’s priorities, it is no surprise that the economy is the top issue for voters. Nearly eight in ten voters say that the economy will be very important to them when they cast their votes.1
But when voters say “economy,” what do they really mean? Is it a catch-all phrase for personal finances? Not exactly. Here’s a breakdown of voters’ top three economic concerns and what each candidate has said about the issues.1
Questions about trade
Questions remain about what will develop between the U.S. and China following the election. President Trump has worked to revise the U.S.-China trade agreements, while former Vice President Joe Biden has indicated he may move towards a more open trade policy.2
President Trump passed The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) of 2017 which was a far-reaching piece of legislation that included lower corporate taxes. Former Vice President Biden has said he wants to repeal parts of the TCJA and has indicated he would be in favor of raising corporate taxes back up to 28% from 21%.2
Former Vice President Biden has put forward his “Clean Energy Revolution” which is designed to transition the country to 100% clean energy and net-zero emissions. President Trump is likely to continue to pursue adjusting environmental regulations and supporting fossil fuel.2
What issues will be pursued? Congress will play a big part regarding the policies to be addressed after the election. The market appears to be complacent no matter what party wins the Presidency or the seats in Congress according to recent trends. Even if there is a temporary reaction to the election, it is the overall economic climate and corporate earnings that tend to have a lasting effect on performance and stability. The Federal Reserve will probably be the key driver to market performance in the short to near-term. The unknown concerning the resurgence of Covid-19 and the timing of a vaccine will likely create a need for government stimulus and the ability to provide for the stimulus through cooperation and action will provide a steady hand to what could be an unsteady environment.
As always, should you have any questions or concerns, please reach out to us to directly. Remember, risk mitigation has always been a fundamental aspect to how we manage investments for both the security and pursuit of financial goals for our clients. We look forward to an opportunity to be your guide in the midst of any financial storm. Please call us at: 610-627-5920.
- PewResearch.org, August 13, 2020
- EIU.com, 2020
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